FARGO – 2012 was a much needed break for the Red River Valley after three years in a row of major flooding. 2013 is looking to be the same.

According the the Flood Outlook released by the National Weather Service this morning, Fargo-Moorhead has a 74% of exceeding the minor flood stage of 18 feet, but only a 6% chance of exceeding the major flood stage of 30 feet.

“Near normal snowpack conditions exist over most of the Red River Basin, except for slightly lower values in the central valley from north of Fargo to Grand Forks, and slightly higher values northward from Oslo to the Can-Am border and westward to the Devils Lake basin.”

“Soils are frozen from 20 to 40 inches deep. Expect near to slightly below normal temperatures and near to slightly above normal precipitation patterns from February into April. Then a return to drier and warmer than normal conditional through the mid to late Summer periods.”

Last year, the Red River in Fargo crested in March below flood stage at 17.1 ft. The three springs before that, Fargo-Moorhead saw three of the highest crests on record: 38.81 ft. in 2011, 36.99 ft. in 2010, and a record setting crest of 40.48 ft.  in 2009.

Flood Potential Outlook [National Weather Service]